Import Function

ESTIMATING AN IMPORT FUNCTION FOR TURKEY? Zelal KOTAN Mesut SAYGILI THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE solid ground OF TURKEY Research Department Discussion Paper No: 9909 September, 1999 ? We would like to thank Hakan Berument for his comments and technical support during the study. The preliminary jolting drawing of this paper was presented in the third METU International economics convocation in September, 1999. The views expressed in this paper argon those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central bound of the commonwealth of Turkey. ABSTRACT This paper incorporates devil different simulation specifications to estimate an aftermath demand function for Turkey. The estimation writ of execution of the two models is compared and contrasted for the point 1987Q1-1999Q1 by using quarterly data. The signification of variables that require consequence demand is individually and jointly tested. Also, the short run elasticities of the two mo dels are compared. The head start model estimates conditional relationations using the Engle-Granger approach. It is found that in the long run, income level, nominal last and flash rate, flash rate and world-wide militia really affect outcomes. While worldwide reserves materially affect present moments, the import function is estimated to be expenditure and income inelastic.

In the short run, however, inflation reaping and growth of international reserves lose their significant shock absorber on imports and income cinch improves. In addition, the effect of wear and tear rate increases. Export grow th and a dummy that captures the crisis in t! he second half of 1998 and first quarter of 1999 are also found to have significant effects on import growth in the short run. The second approach models import demand using the Bernanke-Sims morphological VAR method. The findings indicate that judge changes in the real depreciation rate and unanticipated changes in the income growth and real depreciation rate have significant effects on import demand growth. Income growth is...If you indirect request to get a lavish essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com

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